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At Camp David, President Donald Trump signaled that Washington is entering a more dangerous phase in its confrontation with Iran. The objective is seemingly no longer limited to dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; it is now to weaken the Islamic Republic’s ability to govern, sustain itself, and ultimately survive.
America’s strategy toward Iran is undergoing its most significant shift in decades. The objective is apparently no longer simply to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, but to systematically degrade the regime’s capacity to govern and sustain itself. At Camp David, President Donald Trump said the United States is prepared to intensify military pressure, warning that Washington would “hit them very hard” until the regime reaches a point where it “can’t go on anymore.”
Trump’s repeated cancellations of planned large-scale strikes have raised questions about U.S. credibility and strategic coherence. Meanwhile, Tehran — backed by Moscow and Beijing — is exploiting that uncertainty, while Trump appears to be placing his hopes on a faction within Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
IRANIANS SPEAK OUT OVER POSSIBLE TRUMP-REGIME DEAL
Many Iranians would welcome the ruling establishment’s humiliation, defeat, and eventual surrender. Although disrupting the regime’s critical infrastructure would impose temporary hardships, many opponents of the Islamic Republic see such suffering as the pain of childbirth — a difficult but necessary transition that could ultimately bring about the regime’s collapse.
Meanwhile, Tehran’s propaganda machine has threatened broad retaliation, warning that attacks on critical infrastructure will provoke a severe response. These statements indirectly acknowledge the regime’s preparation for a wider confrontation with the United States and Israel. They also raise the possibility that Tehran could activate dormant terrorist cells and other asymmetric assets in the United States and across the West — an arena in which the Islamic Republic has decades of experience.
The Iranian people are entering an even deeper period of hardship as the regime steadily loses control over large parts of the country. It could spiral into chaos at any moment. If, after the regime’s collapse, a figure such as Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi does not lead a transitional government, Iran could face a bloodbath. The remnants of the Islamic Republic are likely to regroup through mosques and underground terrorist networks, preserving their ideology and continuing their campaign by other means. This risk cannot be ignored.
The current White House has shown no serious commitment to regime change in Iran. Defeating Islamist terrorism requires political resolve, strategic clarity, and a clear understanding of the threat. More than two decades into the 21st century, Washington has failed to defeat a regime that continues to serve the strategic interests of Moscow and Beijing, while much of Europe remains detached from reality. Israel alone has recognized that its security — and the emergence of a new Middle East — depends on regime change in Iran.
TRUMP KEEPS NEGOTIATING WHILE IRAN PLAYS THE LONG GAME AMERICA KEEPS MISSING
President Trump’s objective appears to be forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table. In my view, the ideological rigidity and fanaticism of the Shiite clerical establishment make that outcome unlikely. The regime has repeatedly shown that it would rather see Iran devastated than abandon its revolutionary ideology. This is no longer a conventional military campaign but a form of system warfare in which the regime’s critical vulnerability is no longer the IRGC or its nuclear facilities, but the infrastructure that enables it to survive.
The regime’s critical vulnerability now lies in its electricity grid, oil refineries, fuel distribution networks, command-and-control systems, communications infrastructure, and the institutions that sustain government. Disrupting these systems would have consequences far beyond physical destruction. The IRGC would struggle to coordinate nationwide operations, provincial control would weaken, and pressure on an already bankrupt government would intensify. This is the strategic logic behind targeting the regime’s infrastructure.
For forty-eight years, the Shiite clerical establishment has turned Iran into a military garrison and an ammunition depot. In pursuit of its revolutionary ideology, it has devastated the economy, plundered the nation’s wealth, and sacrificed Iran’s development for ideological expansion. For decades, much of the world ignored Israel’s warnings about the Islamic Republic. Only now is the international community beginning to recognize the scale of the security threat posed by Tehran’s state-sponsored Islamist terrorism.
IRAN IS NOT A NORMAL NATION YOU CAN MAKE DEALS WITH; IT’S A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT
America’s years of negotiating with Iran’s ruling clerical regime have produced little beyond delay, allowing Tehran to buy time while advancing its strategic objectives. Diplomacy with a regime built on terrorism and ideological expansion has repeatedly failed to deliver lasting security. Rather than seeking compromise, Tehran has used negotiations to outlast successive U.S. administrations. The result is a Middle East that continues to pay the price for Washington’s hesitation, while Israel confronts a threat it has long understood.
The Tehran regime and its military and intelligence institutions — including the Supreme National Security Council — have repeatedly threatened operations against the United States and Israel. Within the regime’s ideological worldview, mass-casualty attacks such as September 11 and October 7 are treated as instruments of political intimidation and ideological warfare. Khomeini and Khamenei may be gone, but the ideology they institutionalized endures. To preserve the regime, its leaders have repeatedly shown a willingness to commit acts of violence and repression.
The current White House has shown little commitment to pursuing regime change in Iran. Yet as long as Tehran continues to serve as a strategic partner of Moscow and Beijing, the challenge extends far beyond Iran itself. Israel has long recognized that lasting regional security depends on ending the Islamic Republic’s rule.
The path forward is clear: dismantling the infrastructure that sustains the Islamic Republic is the only way the United States and its allies can force a strategic recalibration in Tehran — or hasten the regime’s collapse. Anything less will allow the mullahs to continue their campaign of terrorism, instability, and ideological expansion. The next phase of this conflict will determine whether the Middle East remains hostage to a dying dictatorship — or finally breaks free.
CENTCOM’s strategic objectives may also require reassessment. Rather than focusing primarily on military facilities, its strategy should target the pillars that sustain the regime: cutting off the IRGC’s financial networks and proxies, disrupting its command-and-control capabilities, exposing the leadership’s corruption and hidden assets, denying access to surveillance technologies, and expanding secure communications for the Iranian people.
At the same time, lower-ranking military and security personnel should be told that those who refuse to repress civilians will have a future in a post-Islamic Republic Iran. External pressure without a credible transition plan risks producing chaos rather than change. The objective should be to dismantle the machinery of repression while preserving the Iranian people’s ability to determine their own future.
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Limited U.S. support could help spark a new popular uprising, accelerating the regime’s collapse. As Iran’s leaders remain hidden in tunnels and the regime’s security apparatus grows increasingly fragmented, Washington should prioritize coordinated covert clandestine operations, stronger protection for opposition figures, and a long-term transition strategy over election-driven diplomacy. Closer strategic coordination between the CIA and Mossad may also be essential to better understand and confront the ideological and operational roots of the radical Islamist threat that has spread since 1979 — a challenge successive U.S. administrations have too often underestimated. The people of Iran and Israel are already paying the price for a prolonged war of attrition. Unless Washington recognizes that the regime’s ideology leaves little room for compromise, the consequences will extend far beyond Iran.
The next phase of this conflict will determine not only the future of Iran, but the future balance of power across the Middle East.
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