When future military capabilities are discussed these days, artificial intelligence and how it will change the nature of warfare is at the top of the list.
But within the Pentagon and the services, AI ambition does not match current budgetary realities.
And while more money is rarely the answer to every Defense Department shortcoming, militaries are what they buy.
As a former Chief of Naval Operations and former member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who continues to participate in non-governmental dialogues in Asia, to include with China, I’ve followed China’s impressive military growth.
Chinese ships, aircraft, and technology are not as good as ours, but they are buying more and rapidly getting better. The dialogue agendas and discussions have also evolved, to include transformational technologies with AI top of mind. Unquestionably, as we move deeper into the AI modernization war, Beijing is buying in that space and doubling down.
Years ago, the Air Force and Navy began creating a new sixth-generation, AI-powered fighter jet to outpace the one China is developing.
That project subsequently split into two separate approaches — the F/A-XX for the Navy and the Next Generation Air Dominance System (NGAD) for the Air Force. Although one is launched from the land and one from the sea, they possess the same objective: to remain globally dominant in the air and to help the United States be the first nation to realize true AI-powered air warfare. The only way to do that is to create these two new AI warfighting systems.
But the Fiscal Responsibility Act that Congress passed last year has hamstrung the U.S. military budget. The Navy and the Air Force are now stuck. In March, the Navy delayed a full $1 billion of funding for its F/A-XX system. The Air Force forewarned that it, too, might soon need to make “tough decisions” about NGAD, including potentially ending the entire program.
That must not happen. China is already closing in on the United States’ militarily. Its new fighter system will be ready by 2035. If the U.S. does not advance fully, our air dominance will become jeopardized.
The AI race is on and shaping the future of warfare. The global military AI market is nearly $9 billion today and is expected to approach $25 billion by 2032. China and the malign countries in its circle want China to become the AI dominant player. Delaying or pausing America’s AI warfighting modernization initiatives like the F/A-XX and NGAD make that goal attainable.
Bold statements of commitment ring hollow when we re-phase or delay our transformational programs. Our deferred outcomes and lack of real urgency are pleasing to Beijing, which has set 2035 as the year China will complete its military modernization effort. The Pentagon, particularly the Air Force and Navy, must set their budgets to deliver these critical systems faster. Congress, in providing for the common defense, must enable these critical programs with funding needed to win the military AI race, because in warfare, there is no second place.
In many respects, China is already ahead. Beijing’s civil-military fusion approach is alive and well. The infrastructure, techniques, and processes that have made China the global manufacturing center of gravity also nurtures along rapid military delivery and improvement.
This is seen in the maritime domain. Between 2015 and 2020, China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), eclipsed the size of America’s Navy, and the gap continues to widen.
The Office of Naval Intelligence has assessed that China’s shipbuilding capacity far exceeds that of the United States because of its significantly larger military and commercial shipbuilding industry. According to the Pentagon’s China power report, the PLAN grew by 30 ships last year, while the U.S. added just two. That trend will likely continue as we’ve reduced our submarine buys in 2025 and delays plague our other shipbuilding programs.
The U.S. Air Force isn’t faring much better. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in march, Navy Adm. John Aquilino, then the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, assessed that “the world’s largest Navy [is] soon to be the world’s largest Air Force” and “the magnitude, scope, and scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”
He’s right. China is producing 100 J-20 fighter aircraft annually, while the United States is turning out roughly 135 F-35s, with only 60 to 70 destined for our Air Force. As in shipbuilding, that’s a recipe for second place.
Beyond numbers, this is also about jobs, skills, and the myriad of companies that contribute to these extraordinary machines and the technology behind them. If we do not sustain American industry, we will lose it.
Gary Roughead is a former United States Navy officer who served as the 29th Chief of Naval Operations from 2007 to 2011. He previously served as Commander of the United States Fleet Forces Command from May 17 to September 29, 2007.
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