The presidential race is a toss-up as the last key state in Vice President Harris’ column drifts towards former President Trump.
But even as polls show a tight race, some voters are rethinking long-held beliefs. This week’s Power Rankings draws up the new Harris and Trump coalitions and shows how they could propel either candidate to victory.
Harris ties herself to an unpopular Joe Biden during media blitz
Harris will make headlines tomorrow when she sits down for her first ever formal interview on Fox News.
The sit-down will be the Vice President’s biggest and most closely-watched opportunity in an uneven media tour.
Her talk show appearances went smoothly, and an interview on Call Her Daddy, one of the country’s most popular podcasts, generated the same kind of excitement among young women that Trump has gained from male influencers.
But last Wednesday, asked if she would have done something differently than President Biden during his administration, Harris told ABC’s The View that “there is not a thing that comes to mind.”
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The answer reminded voters that Harris is the second-in-command in a presidency they say has made their lives worse.
In NBC’s latest national poll, 45% of voters say Biden’s policies have hurt them and their families, while only a quarter say those policies have helped. That is a “net hurt” of 20 points.
Voters view Trump’s policies much more positively, with 44% saying they helped and 31% saying they hurt. In other words, a “net help” of 13 points.
The same poll found Trump’s retrospective job approval is higher than in any of their surveys when he was president.
Harris’ campaign knows that tying the Vice President to Biden isn’t a winner. In her first interview as the Democratic nominee, Harris said it was time to “turn the page on the last decade;” her bus tells voters she offers “a new way forward.”
Trump allies have said they will use the clip in new ads, though it’s not yet clear whether that will happen.
Democrats counter that elections are as much about personal qualities as the issues. Harris leads on caring about people like you (+8), and being honest and trustworthy (+11) in a recent New York Times/Siena poll. At the same time, Trump is up three points on being a strong leader, while Harris leads by eight on being fun.
Either way, Harris’ answer was unhelpful to her campaign, which has weeks left to persuade voters that she would do things differently.
Trump stronger after the vice presidential debate
It has now been two weeks since the only debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and two polls conducted after the showdown suggest that Vance won the night.
- Trump is up one point against Harris at 47%-46% among registered voters in NBC’s survey. Harris previously led by six points.
- Harris is two points ahead of Trump at 50%-48% among likely voters in ABC and Ipsos’ survey. She previously led by five points.
Those are meaningful shifts in Trump’s direction, and NBC’s poll also showed a modest improvement in Vance’s favorability.
In polls showing a tight race, a new electorate emerges
The polls above are two of many showing a race within the margin of error.
But beneath the top lines, there are signs that the Democratic and Republican coalitions are changing. And while Trump’s gains with Black and Latino voters have been talked about the most, both coalitions are strong enough to win an election.
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Trump is gaining in four key voting groups. Compared to the 2020 electorate, he is up six points with male voters, while Democrats have shed 20 points worth of Black vote, 10 points of Hispanic vote, and 3 points with young voters, according to the Times/Siena poll.
The Black and Hispanic gains are the most important for the GOP. These voters can make all the difference in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
The column on the left in the charts shows the percentage that each group made up of the 2020 electorate according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. The percentages apply within each voter category (race, age, etc).
Men, for example, made up 47% of the electorate, which means 53% of voters were women.
That is where the picture becomes more complicated for the Trump campaign.
As men have shifted six points towards the former president, women have shifted three points towards Harris. Voters with a college degree have shifted 10 points towards the Vice President, giving her an overall 26-point advantage with the bloc. And Harris has flipped seniors.
These are some of the most reliable and over-represented voting groups in the U.S. Only about a third of adults have a college degree, for example, but this group accounts for 40% of voters.
In other words, the gains that Trump has made with some key groups are counterbalanced by Harris’ gains with other voters.
Harris loses her lead in the forecast
Battleground polls also show a race on a knife’s edge.
Surveys from the Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac across the three key Rust Belt states have the candidates within a few points, matching more than a dozen other high-quality polls over the last month.
This forecast previously gave Harris an advantage in Michigan. The state has delivered for Democrats since 2016, and the GOP’s turnout operation appears to be particularly disorganized there.
But that isn’t enough when the polls show a race this tight. Both campaigns are making regular visits, and Republicans have booked more spending here than any other battleground state (except Pennsylvania, where ad rates are higher).
Michigan moves from Lean D to Toss Up.
After that shift, the Power Rankings predict that Harris will win at least 226 electoral votes, with Trump winning at least 219. There are seven states worth 93 votes in the middle.
Harris has a six-vote edge that includes Nebraska’s second district. That is important for the Vice President, since a victory there, combined with the Rust Belt battlegrounds, would give her an outright win.
But with so many coin-flip states, this race looks like an electoral college dogfight. The presidential election moves from Harris Lead to Toss Up.
Democrats hold a ticket-splitting edge in battleground states, including Nevada
The Senate forecast still puts Republicans in control with 51 seats. An all-but-certain flip in West Virginia and an edge in Montana gets them over the line.
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Some polls still show GOP Senate candidates running behind Trump. In a recent Arizona survey, the chasm was 12 points wide, with Trump leading the presidential race by five and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego with a seven-point lead over Republican Kari Lake.
History suggests that the gap will diminish by election night. The direction of these ticket-splitters is less clear. Either Trump voters will come home to downballot GOP candidates, or support for the former president is softer than polls suggest.
For now, with polls showing Nevada’s Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen well ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown, their Senate race moves from Toss Up to Lean D.
Three weeks until election night
More than four million voters have now cast a ballot. Early voting is underway in all the battlegrounds except Nevada.
Tomorrow, Fox News will be the only place to see both presidential candidates. At 11AM eastern, watch Harris Faulkner’s town hall with Trump in front of an all-woman audience in Georgia. Hours later, Bret Baier will sit down with Harris in Pennsylvania. The interview airs at 6PM on Special Report.
Fox News Media has also proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by Baier and Martha MacCallum.
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