The practical politics of impeachment: What the math says about the House GOP’s report on Biden

“Impeachable conduct.”

“The totality of the corrupt conduct uncovered by the Committees is egregious.” 

“A concerted effort to conceal President Biden’s involvement in the family’s influence peddling scheme.”

These are the findings of a trio of House committees – led by Republicans – into the conduct of President Biden. It’s the final report of the GOP’s impeachment inquiry into Mr. Biden. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., initiated the inquest verbally last summer, trying to quash an uprising from his right flank. The House finally formalized the probe through a roll call vote in December.

BIDEN COMMITTED ‘IMPEACHABLE CONDUCT,’ ‘DEFRAUDED UNITED STATES TO ENRICH HIS FAMILY’: HOUSE GOP REPORT

Note that many Republicans wanted any impeachment investigation wrapped up by the start of last fall, not a couple of months before the 2024 election.

“Republicans have worked to impede and obstruct any effort to investigate Mr. Trump’s actual and proven corruption, including his unconstitutional receipt, while Commander-in-Chief, of millions of dollars from foreign governments that sought, and often received, favors from his Administration,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, in his own “counter” report. 

House Republicans released their 292-page report hours before the president was scheduled to speak to the Democratic convention in Chicago.

The document argues that Mr. Biden’s conduct warranted sanctions, saying his “flagrant abuse of office is clear: impeachment by the House of Representatives and removal by the Senate.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., encouraged “all Americans to read this report.” But besides thanking the committees for their work, Johnson didn’t signal there would be a vote on impeachment or imply that the House Republican leadership brass would entertain such a possibility. 

That’s because, at this stage, a prospective vote to impeach President Biden would likely fail on the floor.

Why? It’s about the math. There are at least a dozen House Republicans who oppose impeachment. One senior House GOP leadership source characterized a vote now as “moot.”

Fox is told Republicans soured further on impeachment when President Biden decided against seeking reelection. Plus, Mr. Biden only has five more months before the end of his term. Moreover, a vote on impeachment would put moderate Republicans from swing districts in a bind as the GOP tries to maintain its slim majority. Trotting out a vote on impeachment – just to have a vote on impeachment at this stage – would likely produce a loss on the floor. Democrats could then boomerang the failed impeachment vote on those vulnerable Republicans. Democrats would underscore how Republicans tried for more than a year to impeach President Biden. And it culminated in a failed vote on the floor.

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A botched impeachment vote would undercut the Republicans’ report itself and constitute an unforced error for the GOP.

It would also mean Republicans may have placed the emphasis on the wrong syllable – just before the election. Mr. Biden’s issues should be old news to Republicans. But focusing on President Biden, right or wrong, is not where the GOP needs to spend its time. Anything tied to impeachment simply steals the spotlight from the narrative Republicans are trying to craft about Vice President Harris. Republicans are still trying to define Harris. Backpedaling to President Biden diminishes that strategy. 

If House Republicans truly want to impeach the president – and do it by the book – they would likely need at least another public hearing or two. That would also entail a “markup” session by the Judiciary Committee before sending the matter to the House floor. 

The measure would then go to the House Rules Committee. Then the floor for debate and vote.

And how many articles of impeachment could the GOP engineer for President Biden? One? Two? Four?

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The House impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas earlier this year, slapping him with two articles of impeachment: breaking the law and breaching the public trust.

The House levied a singular article of impeachment against former President Trump in 2021 for “incitement of insurrection” after the riot at the Capitol.

In 1998, the House Judiciary Committee prepared four articles of impeachment for former President Clinton after his affair with Monica Lewinsky. The House only approved two articles, lying under oath and obstruction of justice. The House rejected the other articles.

House Republicans will read and consider the impeachment report over the remainder of the congressional recess. Expect some internal debate when House Republicans first meet in a GOP Conference meeting on the morning of September 10.  

But just because House Republican leaders don’t want the House to tangle with impeachment doesn’t mean there won’t be pressure to do so. It’s possible there could be an attempt by hardline conservatives to force a vote on the floor. Fox is told that Republican leaders are bracing for that possibility when the House returns. A rank-and-file Republican member could compel a vote on impeachment via a “privileged” resolution. Such specialized resolutions must come to the floor right away or within two legislative days. Democrats would likely move to table or kill the resolution. Republicans are then placed in the dubious position of voting against tabling the resolution to bring it to the floor – or voting to kill it.

One senior House Democratic source even speculated to Fox that since it was doubtful the House could impeach President Biden, maybe Democrats wouldn’t try to table impeachment. They’d leave that up to Republicans. Imagine this scenario: Republicans moving to table their own impeachment measure. That would certainly slather some egg on the face of the GOP.

But that’s the least of the problems for Republicans. A vote to table the impeachment resolution is one step removed from actually voting on impeachment itself. A failure to table the resolution prompts the House to vote, up or down, on impeachment itself. A vote where Republicans reject impeachment – after they talked about it for the better part of this Congress – looks ham-fisted. It also underscores the problem Republicans struggled with since early 2023 – under both McCarthy and Johnson: ultra-conservative members create headaches for the rest of the party. That includes fights over who should be Speaker to battles over government funding.

In its “conclusion” section of its report, the trifecta of House committees declare the President’s deeds amount “to impeachable conduct.” The committees add that it’s now up to the full House for “evaluation and consideration of appropriate next steps.”

Most Republicans don’t want to wrestle with the impeachment of an elderly president who is partly out the door. Especially as Republicans try to maintain a threadbare House majority – and as former President Trump faces a serious challenge from Vice President Harris. The macro politics of the 2024 election may dictate that impeachment dies quietly on the vine. But the micro politics of the House Republican Conference could suggest something else.