Star Wars franchise in serious trouble as ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ disappoints in opening box office

Well, it’s official, the Star Wars franchise is in serious trouble.

When The Walt Disney Company bought Lucasfilm in 2012 and kept Kathleen Kennedy in charge, expectations for the future of the franchise were high. Disney would bring a new trilogy to movie theaters, immediately set out plans for separate trilogies, stand-alone films based on beloved characters, and Disney+ streaming television shows.

Then the rebooted franchise hit theaters. While “The Force Awakens” was a gigantic hit, each successive film brought in fewer ticket sales and a smaller audience than the one before it. Culminating in the disastrous “The Rise of Skywalker,” which, while profitable, was widely panned by audiences and many critics.

Some streaming shows like “The Acolyte” were so laughably “woke” that they were canceled after one season for low viewership. Films like “Solo” flopped, canceling plans for a future trilogy based on the adventures of a young Han Solo.

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Mixed in were a few seeming successes like “Rogue One” and “Andor,” and at first, “The Mandalorian.” That show’s initial popularity set in motion plans for a feature film. But the second and third seasons of the show lost much of that early momentum. Still, Disney decided to press on by also focusing on the “Baby Yoda” character, Grogu.

Pre-release tracking was not particularly positive, however, and with the first box office from the long Memorial Day weekend now available, it’s confirmed what many have long suspected: Hollywood’s most valuable film property is in major trouble.

While the Memorial Day holiday will help the four-day gross look better, the Friday-Sunday opening box office for “The Mandalorian and Grogu” was just $81.9 million. That’s hardly a “flop,” but when compared to previous Star Wars films, it shows how poorly things are going for Disney.

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“Solo,” a film that was widely viewed as a tremendous disappointment, grossed $84.4 million in its opening three-day weekend, also around Memorial Day, in 2018. Doesn’t sound too bad for “The Mandalorian,” right?

Except, after adjusting for inflation, that $84.4 million in 2018 is roughly $112 million in today’s dollars. Which means “The Mandalorian” made $30 million less in its opening weekend than the biggest flop in franchise history. A flop so bad it ended plans for an entire series.

Similarly, “Solo’s” Memorial Day weekend gross was $103 million, with “Mandalorian” expected to make $102 million this year. That’s even worse; adjusted for inflation, $103 million today is $139 million. $37 million behind over the long weekend. Not good.

The production budget for the film was estimated at roughly $166 million, though tax credits reportedly lowered the cost somewhat. Marketing efforts were widespread, adding another $100 million, at least. With $266 million in costs and the 50/50 revenue split for studios and theaters, the film likely needs to reach somewhere near $500 million to break even.

International grosses aren’t exactly cause for optimism there either. “Solo” had an international opening weekend of $65 million, along with the $84.4 million domestic total. That’s $149.4 million. “The Mandalorian and Grogu” has brought in $63 million internationally, for a $145 million first weekend. But again, adjusted for inflation, “Solo” made $198 million. That’s a $53 million gap.

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There’s still time, and maybe “The Mandalorian” has the legs to outpace its predecessor. Based on early reviews though, that doesn’t seem likely. “Solo” finished with under $400 million internationally. If this film doesn’t cross that barrier either, it would almost certainly lose Disney money at the theatrical box office. For a film set in the Star Wars universe.

It’s a stunning outcome on the one hand, and completely unsurprising on the other. Instead of focusing on quality storytelling and planning, Kennedy spent her time making “The Force is female” T-shirts and checking specific casting boxes. And after years of telling the core Star Wars fanbase that they no longer matter, they listened.

Kathleen Kennedy is now out at Lucasfilm, but her successor, Dave Filoni, was heavily involved in this film. And it’s tracking to be yet another critical and commercial disappointment. Not long ago, it seemed impossible for Disney to mess up Star Wars. Boy was that ever wrong.

There’s sure to be more films on the way, and a return to form could steady the ship. But they’ve now lost the benefit of the doubt and introduced the most dangerous emotion in fandom: apathy.